Editor's note: This article discusses a topic that can be contentious. We aim to remain neutral and examine how developments in climate solutions could impact the supply and demand of silver. Given silver's role in certain green technologies, this analysis is relevant for those interested in silver investments.
While recent inflation numbers show slight improvement, many Americans still feel the strain on their wallets. Prices have increased a staggering 18% since early 2021, making it tough to afford everyday essentials.
Food costs, in particular, have been hit hard. Despite the USDA's prediction of slowing food price increases in 2023 and 2024, experts now warn about a new wave of food inflation driven by government "net-zero" climate policies.
Here is what we’re all up against. Listen to U.S. climate envoy John Kerry speak of the dire consequences unless agriculture is not reigned in from its climate-changing ways:
Kerry says:
“Agriculture contributes about 33% of all the emissions of the world.”
Except it’s not entirely true.
Considering only the scope of emissions, if we look at total greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale, the agriculture sector does contribute a significant portion. However, estimates often fall closer to 10-12% when only factoring in direct emissions from on-farm practices.
Think tractors and other farm equipment.
Where did Kerry get the 33% number?
If you expand the definition to include the entire food system—from production to transportation, processing, waste, and land-use changes (like deforestation for farming) — then the figure closer to 25-35% becomes more accurate. Transportation of food to market and ultimately to our table appears to be where Kerry’s 33% number comes from.
That’s his number and he’s sticking to it. Kerry made it clear that agriculture is the new target in the climate wars, with gas and diesel passenger vehicles having already lost their battles. Food production is destroying the planet so something has to be done about it … that’s the new narrative.
Let’s compare agriculture to passenger vehicles. Cars, SUVs, light trucks, and similar passenger vehicles directly contribute approximately 7-10% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
7-10% was enough to force EV mandates upon the population, which they have partially accomplished already. California, along with many other states, has adopted rules requiring 100% of new cars sold to be zero-emission vehicles by 2035.
What does that mean for farm tractors and the whole food supply system?
Electrification can be the only answer.
Passenger cars and trucks contribute 10% so make them all electric.
Agriculture contributes 33% so make them all electric. I believe replacing beef with bugs and lab-grown meat is also being considered as part of the solution.
Net-zero policies are just one reason behind the widespread farmer protests across Europe. Although we won't delve into the details here, the pushback demonstrates the deep frustrations within the agricultural sector.
As a result…
The Buckeye Institute's recent report paints a grim picture: Farmers could see costs rise by over 34%. That means an American family of four will likely face an additional $1,300 yearly grocery bill. This added cost is on top of existing burdens caused by inflation and other factors.
An average US farm could see annual operating costs go from $192,000 to $257,000 due to net-zero compliance. Meat products like beef are set to feel the greatest impact, as costs for inputs like corn are projected to escalate significantly.
Increased operating costs for farmers ultimately mean higher prices on the shelves. While recent inflation data may offer a glimmer of hope, families should brace themselves for an additional hit to their food budgets.
Consider who’s not part of net-zero or ESG which is also closely related. ESG refers to Environmental, Social, and Governance.
Who’s not a part of these movements is:
China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and others. Or put another way: BRICS for the most part.
Western nations will bear the brunt of the cost of net-zero movement along with their citizens.
Impact on Precious Metals:
Supply Constraints: Net-zero compliance increases mining costs (fuel, regulatory burdens), potentially limiting the supply of metals like gold and silver.
Demand Spike: Economic uncertainty caused by rising food costs could drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, increasing demand.
Inflation Hedge: Precious metals are traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation. Growing fears of further price increases could make them even more attractive.
Key Points:
Despite promising predictions, food prices remain a serious concern.
Government climate policies aimed at "net-zero" emissions will drive costs up for farmers.
These higher costs translate directly to pricier groceries.
Expect certain items, like beef, to increase more substantially than others.